Problems in mathematics

Today the Government launches The Low Carbon Transition Plan White Paper, which should detail how the UK is going to meet their targets agreed by the Kyoto Protocol, The Climate Change Act and the agreements of the G8.

Now, as we all know from the recent G8 meeting, it was agreed that developed countries should reduce their greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050 to prevent more than two degrees of global warming.

George Monbiot does some helpful mathematics on this subject which I shall paraphrase here.

Total global C02 emissions = 29196 million tonnes

Total Developed Countries C02 emissions = 14982 million tonnes (51% of global emissions). It is this figure that is proposed to be reduced by 80%, shaving 11986 million tonnes (41% of total) from the total global output and reducing their emissions to 2996 million tonnes.

The G8 has also called for a GLOBAL cut of 50% (14598 million tonnes) by 2050, meaning the Developing Countries will have to cut the other 2612 million tonnes of the 50% to reach that target. This is only roughly 9% of the total global carbon emissions.

However, there is the problem of Carbon trading and offsetting, something I forsaw would be a problem as soon as I learned about it. The way the UK proposes achieving the cut of 80% is to offset at least half of it, meaning they would in reality only be reducing their emissions to 5993 million tonnes. Developing countries would then have to reduce their emissions by 5993 million tonnes as well. If you add that to the amount they already have to reduce by:

50% (14598 million tonnes) of GLOBAL emissions need to be cut:
5993 by Developed Countries
5993 Offset by Developed Countries to Developing Countries
2612 by Developing Countries

= 5993 (roughly 40%) for Developed Countries
= 8605 (roughly 60%) for Developing Countries

So those who produce the 51% of all emissions, have to reduce less than those who produce 49%. Perhaps there is a bigger picture I am missing here.